Homesure Property

Housing Market opinion: April 2019

Nicholas Stott

Nicholas (Nick) is Managing Director of Homesure Property specialising in Property Investment, Property Development, & Property Management.
It’s time to update our prediction of how the housing market would behave after the end of the first quarter of 2019.
Firstly, the Brexit debacle continues – without any sort of firm end in sight – which means that these predictions are even more fragile than before.
As expected, new instructions to the market (supply) have been few and far between, while keen buyers (demand) have been frantically buying, leading to an increase in prices and a shortage of available stock to buy.
Our Estate Agency department is doing a roaring trade as our new listings are swarmed all over; however, pipeline stock is our main focus to make sure we’re still bringing on properties to sell. This is clearly the same for our competitors, and therefore many of our sources of leads on the investment side of things.
The deals we’ve managed to agree thus far this year have primarily come from properties that we’ve been negotiating for a long time, rather than new instructions. I believe this is a crucial indicator of the type of buyer in the market at the moment. Rather than taking a deep dive into the local market and really investigating the existing stock, many of the buyers are simply snapping up the latest new instruction. This shows us that hype is big and the fear of missing out is high.

Review of the first quarter of 2019

Quarter 1:
The sentiment is more negative than it has been for years, and there’s a lot of “wait and see” attitude around.
Properties to buy will be in short supply as sellers hold their breath for Brexit.
Yep, all of that seems to have happened and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future it seems.
We check new instructions in our key areas on a daily basis, which doesn’t seem to be taking very long at the moment!

Do our other predictions still stand?

Quarter 2:
With the Brexit deadline having passed, the market breathes out and looks around the landscape. What is the true effect & impact? What truths and data come out of the divorce?
Well, if we had any sort of conclusion to Brexit – maybe!
At the time of writing, a 12-month “flexible” extension seems to be the main topic, so we could have at least another year before this prediction actually kicks in!
There’s no point at looking at quarters 3 and 4, as they are sequential to quarter 2.

So, what should you do?

Carry on regardless.
It’s incredibly frustrating to have very few properties to look at. It’s also frustrating that they’ve already gone (often over the asking price) before we’ve had a chance to view or make an offer.
All you can do is keep looking, act quickly, and make sure you have your ducks in a row. Have your finance, purchase vehicle, and solicitor all lined up ready to go.

What are we going to do in 2019?

We still believe now is the time to buy, buy, buy.

We are ramping up efforts for our other deal flows. Direct-to-seller marketing campaigns (print & online), networking, auctions, title splits, portfolio sellers, and probate cases involve an incredible amount of time, effort, & expense, but they do yield results if sustained over the long term.

It’s very easy to ease off from these sources when there are plenty of deals around, but you need to keep on top of these relationships and endeavours regardless of the current market trends – otherwise, you have to start all over again!

Rather uniquely, there is another source of deals at the moment – high-earning landlords. Those landlords who are in the 40% tax bracket are being hammered by the new interest rate relief changes. Those landlords who still own the properties in the personal names are having to offload as their rental properties start to cost them a lot of money.
They don’t like to be messed around as they will either have a paying tenant or an empty property. Either way, it’s costing them money and they want a swift conclusion.

How can Homesure help?

Our investment company, Homeinvest, is dedicated to building boring property investment portfolios. For more information, visit www.homesureproperty.co.uk/investment.

At the time of writing, our service is still closed to new clients due to subscription levels. We have chosen to reduce the number of clients we take on to ensure that we deliver the best possible service to our clients, rather than a lesser service to many.

To reserve your spot on the waiting list, register here.

Best wishes,

Nicholas Stott